The biggest lead since the Iraq War

February’s NOP opinion poll for the Independent has LAB 42: CON 30: LD 18 in figures that look similar to those produced by Populus last week and will do nothing to reinforce Tony Blair’s weekend warning about the Tories being a threat

We will put our normal variation numbers on these figures when we have been able to confirm them. Last month there was a muddle at the paper when two writers were reporting different sets of numbers three full percentage points apart.

Whatever this poll shows a big move to Labour and the 42%, if confirmed, puts the party back at the share they got at the 2001 General Election.

The survey showed that 69 per cent of Tories are determined to cast their ballots compared to 64 per cent of Liberal Democrats and 59 per cent of Labour supporters.

For the Lib Dems there’ll be disappoinment that the second of the month’s polls from the “serious tabloids” has them with a share of 18% – which is less than they got at the General Election.

NOP did not have a good 2001 election producing some of the biggest Labour leads. In one survey it got to 20%. Their final poll had Labour 17% ahead – against an actual 9.3%. NOP also under-stated the Lib Dems by more than a sixth.

In 1997 NOP’s final poll had a 22% predicted Labour margin – it was actually 13%. It’s Lib Dem figure was 14% against the 17.2% that was actually achieved.

© Mike Smithson 2005