The money moves away from Labour after peers adopt Howard’s terror measure

Labour’s troubles getting the anti-terror bill through the Lord rather than today’s Populus Poll in the Times have dominated the General Election betting markets which have seen sharp moves to the Tories.

On the main “who will win most seats” market the Betfair exchange price on the Tories has moved to 6.4/1 after being at 7.4/1 yesterday and 10/1 just over a fortnight ago. That is a major shift.

It’s been the same story on the spread-betting markets where the latest IG Index spreads are LAB 351-358: CON 193-203: LD 68-72. The Tories are three seats up this week and the Lib Dems two.

Peers have defeated the government, voting to insert the Tory “sunset clause” into the anti-terrorism bill that will see it automatically expire on 30 November. The vote followed a series of other defeats that prompted ministers to hint at a possible rethink over the bill.

Twenty Labour peers – including the ex-Labour Lord Chancellor and Tony Blair’s mentor, Lord Irvine, – backed the amendment saying judges and not politicians should issue control orders. Former Met police chief Lord Condon also backed it.

Punters seem to have taken the view that for the Prime minster to suffer such a defeat on what they’ve made to be a key bill could be damaging in the run-up to the General Election.

The Tory strategy of pushing for the “sunset clause” seems to have worked out.

© Mike Smithson 2005