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Month: September 2005

The Betting Markets move further to Davis?

The Betting Markets move further to Davis?

Tory leadership betting: RED Davis, BLACK Clarke, BLUE Cameron, GREEN Fox But what if the rule changes are rejected? With the Labour Conference, the Scottish by-elections and the announcement on Tuesday of whether the Howard changes to the Tory leadership rules have gone through it’s the biggest week in British politics since the General Election in May. For the Tory leadership our latest chart shows further a improvements in the implied probability of David Davis winning based on the latest…

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Where football betting meets political betting

Where football betting meets political betting

Is AC Milan’s George Weah the right man to become Liberia’s next President? Of the 22 candidates standing for President in the tiny West African country’s presidential election, few have anything like the name recognition of Liberia’s soccer legend and FIFA 1996 player of the year, George Weah. The former AC Milan striker won the nomination of his Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) more than a month ago and is campaigning evergetically. In the UK the Spreadfair spread-betting exchange has…

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Could Blair make an announcement in a matter of days?

Could Blair make an announcement in a matter of days?

Was the decision taken while on holiday? The big unanswered question over-hanging British politics is when will Blair step down? When will he make his big announcement? When will the baton be passed on to Gordon Brown? We have long taken the view that this will happen later rather than sooner and that he would serve most of his third term. Now we are not so sure and next week’s Labour conference, which Tony Blair is surely not looking forward…

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Will Charles have calmed the doubters?

Will Charles have calmed the doubters?

How will tonight’s by-elections go? In the immediate aftermath of last year’s Lib Dem conference the party’s poll ratings soared to the dizzy heights of 29% – a point ahead of the Tories and just 3 points behind Labour. The share was never to get anywhere near that again and on May 5th 22.7% of the electorate cast their votes for Charles Kennedy’s party. The dashed expectations were surely one of the causes of the widespread view in Blackpool this…

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Now the Tories talk of a coalition with the Lib Dems

Now the Tories talk of a coalition with the Lib Dems

Will Maude’s frank comments boost Kennedy and rebound on the Tories? With Charles Kennedy due to make his crucial leader’s speech at Blackpool today the chairman of the Tory party, Francis Maude, has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons by suggesting that his party could form a coalition with the Lib Dems if the next General Election produced an indecisive result. In an interview in the Independent this morning Maude is quoted as saying “…You look round the country and…

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How’s the week going for Charles, Gordon and David?

How’s the week going for Charles, Gordon and David?

…. Has the gloss gone off Gordon? One of the odder poll results during this first week of the party conference season is that Labour could drop support if Gordon Brown, as expected, becomes leader. An ICM survey had top-line figures of LAB 40: CON 31: LD 21. But when asked how they would vote if Labour was led by Brown and the Tories by Clarke the vote shares change to LAB 38: CON 30: LD 25. So both Labour…

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Is the council tax delay the start of the 2009 campaign?

Is the council tax delay the start of the 2009 campaign?

The Great Conjurer takes another issue away from the Tories When Tony Blair finally does step down as leader the one thing his party will surely miss is his extraordinary ability to foresee and to deal with issues that leave them vulnerable to Tory attacks. Right from the Clause 4 abolition in the mid-90s to agreeing last year to the EU constitutional referendum one sensitive issue after another has been closed down by smart changes in Labour policy. Tony Blair…

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Markets open on the Berlin standoff

Markets open on the Berlin standoff

The bookie favourite is Anegla Merkel heading a grand coalition While Germany awaits confirmation of which parties will form their next government, Paddy Power have introduced two markets on what will happen next in Berlin. It has made a grand coalition the favourite with a price of just 1/2 that the CDU/CSU & SPD parties will rule together. The second favourite coalition grouping, at 2/1/ is an alliance between SPD, Green & FDP. On who the next Chancellor will be…

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