Is today the end for the former Chancellor?

If the betting markets and those who took part in PB.C’s prediction competition have got this right then Ken Clarke’s long-standing hope of becoming leader of his party and Prime Minister looks set to end at about 5.20 pm this afternoon – when the results of the first round of the Tory leadership ballot are announced.

In the leadership betting the rush to Cameron has continued and he has been trading overnight at levels not even reached by David Davis when he was the red-hot favourite.

Paul Maggs who devised and is handling our prediction competition writes; “With 103 entries received in the pb.com prediction competition for Round 1 of the Conservative leadership election, the consensus of opinion among website users is that Ken Clarke will be the first to take an “early bath” in the contest, while David Davis is the overwhelming choice to win Tuesday’s ballot.

The average predictions were Davis to win 66 votes, ahead of David Cameron on 53, followed by Liam Fox with 41, just ahead of Clarke with 38 votes.

Of the entries received 94 predicted Davis as the winner, 83 entries had Cameron as runner-up, while Fox was the third place choice in 69 entries, and 63 people thought that Clarke would finish last.”

In the elimination betting Ken is the 0.39/1 favourite to got out first. Fox is currently at 2.25/1 with Davis on 31/1 and Cameron on 33/1.

Leadership Betting
Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.43/1: Davis 3.5/1: Clarke 18.5/1: Fox 14.5/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 4/9: Davis 11/4: Clarke 14/1: Fox 8/1
IG’s Binary spread-market. Cameron 61-69: Davis 21-27: Clarke 2-6: Fox 4-8

We’ll be putting up a thread for a second round competition later on this evening. Tomorrow work commitments mean I will not be near a computer and Philip Grant (Book Value) will be acting editor.

Mike Smithson