Could the budget “masterstroke” have scuppered Gordon’s chances?

What a difference two days make? After all the cheers from his fellow Labour MPs on Wednesday there’s a massive blow to Brown and his party from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph this morning.

For in the first poll since the budget there is a 2% increase in the Tory lead. These are the figures compared with the last survey from the internet pollster – CON 39% (+1): LAB 31% (-1): LD 16% (nc)

Other points from the poll are equally discouraging for the Chancellor.

When asked how they views the prospect of Brown becoming Prime Minister 22% said they were “looking forward to it” while 56% said they were not looking forward to it.

On the budget itself 36% said “it was fair” while 46% said it wasn’t.

By 36% to 25% more people say they want Blair as Prime Minister than Brown

The problem with putting so much emphasis on the 2% tax cut is that it looked too clever by half and reinforced existing views of Gordon.

The big thing now is whether this YouGov poll is a one off or whether other surveys expected over the weekend come up with similar findings.

So much political capital was being invested in the budget that for it to turn out to be a flop with the public will raise even more doubts about Brown’s political acumen – certainly amongst Labour MPs in marginal seats.

My reaction has been to bet against Brown on the leadership markets. My “SELL” bet on Brown on the BrandIndex market must be looking very good.

YouGov note. The full data from the poll shows that the Lib Dems were on 16%. This has been amended.

Politicalbetting’s third birthday: I’ve just noticed that today is PBC’s third birthday. We started on March 23rd 2004 with a piece on the London Mayoral Election. Many thanks to everybody for all their support.

Mike Smithson