But the Tories take the hit for the LD surge

After predicting on yesterday’s ComRes thread that the ICM October poll for the Guardian would report a 5% Tory lead I feel a bit of satisfaction that that indeed is what has come about. These are the shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster tkaen in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference CON 40% (-3): LAB 35% (-1): LD 18% (+4)

Also last week I was predicting that the extra media attention from Ming’s departure and the leadership race would give the Lib Dems a 3-4% boost – which has happened too.

ICM has consistently been the pollster which has given the Lib Dems the highest shares and I’m convinced that the 14% of three weeks ago played a part in the leadership changes.

There’s something for everybody here:-

Labour will be pleased at still being only one point below their general election total and the fact that the Tories seem to have taken most of the hit for the LD surge

The Tories might be a tad disappointed but will still be pleased at being in the 40s.

The Lib Dems will be delighted by their 18% share.

I’m hoping that the detail of the poll might have useful information about the Lib Dem race.

Mike Smithson