The Tories get eight seats nearer a majority on the spreads

Welcome again to the high-risk high-reward world of Commons seat spread betting where serious political gamblers trade the number of seats that the parties will get at the general election as though they were stocks and shares.

When we last looked at this on March 7th the Tory spreads were 299-305 seats; Labour was at 269-275 and the Lib Dems at 47-50. so the Tories have moved up eight seats, Labour are down seven and the Lib Dems down three.

Here it’s real money with punters taking real risks that drive the prices up and down. So if you think that the Tories will do better than the 313 seats now on offer and you trade at £100 a seat you would make £4200 if the latest ICM poll is right and the party ends up with 355 seats. The calculation is simple – your winnings, or losses, are calculated by the numbers of seats difference between the price you went in and what actually happens. So if Cameron’s Tories did get 355 seats the difference is 42 and you multiply that by your stake level.

With this form of betting the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose – so be careful. It’s judging the right price to go in that is critical.

There are two elements that make this form of gambling particularly enticing – the firms offer punters credit accounts so you don’t even have to put up any cash now; and you can get out of your position at time pocketing your profits or limiting your losses. The firms make their profits from the spread – the difference between the buy and sell prices.

Over the weekend with the new polls coming out I have bought the Tories at 305 and 311 seats to add to earlier bets at the 302 level.

If you think that a Labour recovery is possible then now is a good time to buy. The level is 268 seats so if Gordon hung on to a bare majority and got 325 seats then you would make 57 times your stake level. Clearly if you wait to bet until a Labour recovery is seen in the polls then the prices will have changed.

Spreadbetting tip: As soon as a new poll comes out that you think will affect the market get your money on straight away – you might be able to beat the price adjustment that usually takes place. These days we tend to get news of polls in the following day’s papers by about 8 pm the previous evening.

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Mike Smithson