MRUK data: Boris leading among those certain to vote

MRUK data: Boris leading among those certain to vote


    The information over-load continues

With Thursday’s London Mayoral election seemingly on a knife-edge every little scrap of information could be helpful to those who are having a punt.

The Sunday Times’s pollster, MRUK, is being particularly helpful and their Ivor Knox has just emailed me some information that I thought I ought to pass on.

  • Before applying the turnout filter the first preference split had Ken leading by 45% to 42%
  • After applying the filter which just to include those rating their voting certainty at 80% or more and we got the figures that were published – Ken leading by 44% to 43%.
  • Restricting this to those saying they were 100% certain and Boris takes the narrowest of leads – 44% to 43%
  • The main point is that the more you narrow the voting base the figures move towards the Tory. Just like the MORI poll MRUK found an increase in those saying they were 10/10 certain. This was 64% of the weighted sample.

    Knox adds this point: “However, I should reiterate that the questions and structure of this survey were not designed to measure turnout – they show the claimed turnout among people who are sufficiently engaged in the process to voluntarily take part in a survey, which is very likely to be higher than the actual turnout next week.”

    I think that that is very fair but make of all of this what you will. With a bit of luck there should be a YouGov poll tomorrow.

    The betting prices at 10.20 am were Boris 0.75/1 and Ken 1.32/1.

    Mike Smithson

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