Are Tory supporters getting nervous?
Mike Smithson has asked me to highlight significant movement on the Sporting Index political spreadbetting markets. After victory in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election, the mid-point between the Buy and Sell price on Conservative seats at the next election had been around 350, implying that David Cameron would enjoy a majority of around 50.
Today, that mid-point price dropped to 335, suggesting a majority of only 20. It seems inevitable that this is largely in response to the sudden announcement of a by-election in Haltemprice & Howden, following the shock resignation of Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis.
Our Genial Host, Mike Smithson, suggests that “Some punters are clearly panicking over David Davis’ dramatic announcement yesterday”. We are expecting the weekend papers to carry polls indicating levels of support for David Davis’ position, so for the moment Mike is advising spreadbetting punters to “Watch and wait – but be ready to move very fast”
Are these punters being overly cautious, or are they correct is sensing potentially troubled waters ahead for a Conservative party that has recently enjoyed fantastic poll ratings in the face of the Government’s troubles?
In which direction do pb.com’s punters think this market will move next?
The main betting markets are here.
REMINDER: The PoliticalBetting.com Summer Barbeque will be held at the National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE, next Thursday (19th June) starting at around 6pm. Tickets cost Â£20, and you can pay at the door. All welcome
UPDATE: The Irish Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty has been won by the ‘No’ Campaign, with 53.4% of the national vote.
UPDATE: Kelvin MacKenzie, former editor of the Sun newspaper, has said that if Labour do not run a candidate against David Davis in the Haltemprice & Howden by-election, then he is 90% likely to launch a campaign in support of the 42 days pre-charge detention bill recently passed by the House of Commons.