What chance has she of becoming President? With Obama having being in office for only eight days Sarah Palin has made a move that is being seen as the first step to a run for the presidency in 2012. It might seem a long way off but campaigns planing has to start early and Palin appears to want to ensure that her party is aware of her ambition. Her move has been to create a formal Political Action Committee which…
Are Labour’s focus groups giving it the thumbs up? We are barely fourteen months away from a formal election campaign having to start and one would assume that every single message that the main parties are trying to get over has been tested extensively in focus groups and other polling. What’s at stake is so important that anything that could influence voters in the key marginals has, surely, to be tested and tested to ensure that the parties are getting…
Should Dave have been allowed openings like this? Michael Settle of the Glasgow-based Herald sets out the scene and the dangers for Brown of Erminegate in the story that’s currently the lead on Google News UK Search. “.IT is the most toxic word in the political lexicon and is threatening to make a comeback – sleaze. The alarm in No 10 over “Erminegate” – denied allegations that four Labour peers were ready to accept money in return for amending government…
How important is being the first leader to see him? By all accounts Brown Central is placing a lot on the relationship between their man and President Obama. The news that the race to have first phone conversation with between a European leader and Obama was won by Brown was highlighted over the weekend. Next comes the question of which of the big three – Sarkozy, Merkel or Brown – gets the first meeting. There have been reports that Brown…
Surely the methodologies are untested with a Tory surge? Ladbrokes has got further into general election mode today with the launch of its seat markets – the first of which, for the Tories is featured above. We’ll be doing later threads on Labour and the Lib Dems. Successful betting here, I suggest, requires an understanding of the polls and familiarity with the various seat projectors which convert projected vote shares into the number of seats actually won. But how challenging…
Which of these headlines is the most damaging? What a dreadful set of front pages for Gordon Brown to digest this morning. Not only is there the follow-up to the “cash for laws” allegations but there’s more awful polling news and and in the background the drip by drip news of jobs going up and down the country and in every sector. The release by the Times of the tape recording of the “interview” with one of the “cash for…
CONSERVATIVES 44% (+6) LABOUR 32% (-1) LIB DEMS 16% (-3) But the LDs see a drop to 16% The long-awaited Guardian ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories up six points to 44%. The move is in line with all the other surveys that we have seen in the past three weeks and is further evidence that Brown Bounce II has come to a dead stop. Labour will be pleased that their drop was just one…
Is it time to re-visit the Hill’s market? It’s almost hard to credit the total change that we’ve seen in UK politics in the past few weeks but less than a month ago many PBers, including me got bets on at 7/4 on the market from William Hill Politics that Brown would be the first of the main party leaders to be out. Then the favourite was Nick Clegg with David Cameron the long-shot. Now prices have shifted a fair…