CONSERVATIVES 48% (+4)
LABOUR 28% (-2)
LIB DEMS 17% (nc)
…and Labour are back in the 20s?
The latest MORI poll, just out, has some quite dramatic changes with the Tories now up to 48% – twenty points ahead of Labour who are on 28%.
Downing Street might just take some comfort that this is not quite as bad for Brown as last September when MORI had the Tories on 52% with Labour down on 24%.
Clearly the past week has been quite dreadful for the government and it was almost inevitable that the polling would pick this up.
The MORI top-line numbers, of course, only include those 100% certain to vote and this tends to produce dramatic changes when things are going very bad or very well for a party. So in the second set of figures that the pollster issues, the shares of those naming a party, it’s C39:L31:LD19.
What the poll has not done is confirm the swing to the Lib Dems that we saw last week in the three telephone pollsters that use past vote weighting – ICM, Populus and ComRes. But MORI’s 17% share of last month has been retained. Back in November Nick Clegg’s party was getting just 12%.
In all the polling at the moment the critical element is what the numbers will do to the internal machinations of the Labour party. It’s hard to see how 20% deficits from the firm are going to do anything other than add to the gloom and speculation about the leadership.
There will come a moment, surely, Brown’s position could come under real pressure.