CONSERVATIVES 44% (+3)
LABOUR 28% (+3)
LIB DEMS 17% (-5)
But for Nick Clegg’s party it’s back to normal
The big news in the last ComRes poll a fortnight ago was a sensational boost for the Lib Dems which had them at 22% – only three points behind Labour.
Tonight they are back at 17% which is broadly in line with the other pollsters – the question is whether this represents a change of opinion or is partly down to the way ComRes works out its past voting weightings. I’ve been doing some analysis on this and will be writing a piece in the near future. I suggested that this might be an issue when that 22% share came out.
No doubt people will seek to read into the numbers the impact of last week’s tragic news about David Cameron’s son and what was generally agreed to have been an authentic and heartfelt response from Brown. Who knows? But certainly this was dominating the news in the period up to the fieldwork starting.
Getting back into the mid-40s is a real boost to Cameron while Labour will be pleased to be away from that dreadful 25% figure.
The Independent in the morning is likely to make great play that the poll detail suggests that Cameron is winning over former LD voters supporters with one in five (21 per cent) of those who voted Liberal Democrat in 2005 say they would vote Tory now.
Alas this proportion would be even more significant but for the fact that in its most previous survey ComRes found that barely 6% of 2005 LD voters said they had switched to the Tories. So the LD switching proportion has moved from 6% to 21% since mid-February. There’s something wrong somewhere. I believe the higher figure because that’s what other surveys have suggested.
Overall ComRes reinforces the other polling with only the online-firm, YouGov, being slightly out of alignment. The Tories are in a strong position to win a comfortable majority.
So Brown Bounce II is really over. Could this week’s events in Washington DC provide a springboard for Brown Bounce III? It is on that eventuality that Labour’s hopes rest.