Remember the headlines two months ago today?

Exactly two months ago this morning I did a similar collage of newspaper front pages to the one here – and how different they all looked. For April 3rd 2009 was the day after the G20 meeting and Mr Brown got some of the best coverage of his premiership.

Who would have thought then that only a few weeks later that the big political question politics would be whether Brown can hang on. For since the G20 aftermath there have been two massive developments that have eaten right into the heart of Labour’s morale – the Damien McBride smear plans and, of course the Telegraph’s disclosures on MPs expenses.

And tomorrow his party has to face the voters in the last national electoral test before the general election. How is all of this going to go down in the privacy of the voting booths? Will the expected disaster be worse than even the most extreme predictions? Will it reinforce the case for change at the top?

We’ve not long to wait. I’ve now come to the view that Brown’s chances of surviving in the job are down to 50% and we could see a lot of betting markets being resolved over the weekend. Only three days ago I got 5/2 with William Hill that Brown would be out during 2009. This morning that price looks like a great bargain.

Mike Smithson

Mike Smithson