When is a poll not a poll?

When is a poll not a poll?

A betting adjudication

I might be on holiday but PB seems to follow me everywhere – even to this stunning sherry port of Sanlucar where Jacky and I have just arrived on the next stage of our holiday which marks our 40th wedding anniversary tomorrow.

Thanks to those who helped bank-roll the trip – notably all those who didn’t vote in the Euro elections which meant that the big positions I took on turnout being below 35% proved to be winners. On top of that there was Fred Goodwin paying part of his £700,000 a year pension back – thus giving me a 6/1 winner.

Peter from Putney and Richard have asked me to rule on a wager – that Labour’s deficit in any poll in a defined period would drop to 7% or below. Richard claims that he’s the winner because of the ComRes Euro election poll for the Green Party which had the Tories just 2% ahead of Labour with the Greens on a breathtaking `15%.

This was a private poll which was not past voted weighted. The survey was part of the Indy’s ComRes poll for May which had Labour 8 points behind. These Westminster figures were past vote weighted while the EU numbers were not.

I’ve ruled that this methodology change for the EU part of the poll could not have been envisaged when the two entered into the wager and that bets of this kind should, unless agreed beforehand, be confined to public polls – not private ones like this one.

Mike Smithson

10pm Sunday papers update…

Telegraph Johnson opens damaging new rift with Brown

Times Secret “doomsday” plans for 20% spending cuts

Double Carpet

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