Are the Tories really most at risk from UKIP?

Are the Tories really most at risk from UKIP?

How less than one in five are ex-Tory voters

This is the first part of some analysis I’ve been doing on the rise of “others” – UKIP, the BNP and the Greens – and the impact that they might have at the next general election.

A big question to start with is where is UKIP support coming from? What can we find out from the polling data?

The following numbers are based on the aggregation of all the relevant data from ComRes polls since the firm changed its methodology at the end of June. A total of eight separate surveys were involved from which I have tried to determine the former voting behaviour of all those who’ve told ComRes that they plan to vote UKIP at the next general election.

This is the outcome which has proved to be something of a surprise:-

What did UKIP voters do at the 2005 general election?:-
19.63% said they voted Conservative
19.63% said they voted Labour
7.01% said they voted Lib Dem
20.09 said they voted for another party (I assume UKIP)
The rest did not remember or did not vote.

These numbers suggest that the widely stated view that most of UKIP’s support comes from ex-Tories is simply wrong. Labour is seeing the precisely the same seepage.

This is limited to ComRes because it is the only pollster which makes the data available in a way which can be analysed. I decided to include all the surveys because the numbers in each single poll are just too small.

There will be subsequent posts on the Greens and the BNP.

Mike Smithson

Comments are closed.