Will the weekend polls be closer to YouGov or ComRes

Will the weekend polls be closer to YouGov or ComRes

Can we expect a firmer view on the PBR reaction?

Those who were hoping that the polls taken in the immediate aftermath of Alistair Darling’s PBR statement might give an indication of how it has gone down were disappointed.

For there was a huge contrast between the online YouGov family of polls and that of the phone pollster, Comres. The former was showing the Labour deficit down three to just nine points while the latter had the gap widening by seven points to 17%.

All the polls are putting the Tories in the low 40s – but it’s the LAB-LD split where they are differing.

One oddity in the latest YouGov poll is that while the gaps with the Tories closed over the week Gordon Brown’s approval ratings got worse. In the poll the weekend before last he had a net deficit of 38%. In the latest poll this had moved to 42%.

At the same time David Cameron’s net positive rating moved up a point. You would think that these would go up and down in line with voting intention.

I’ve just had confirmation that Ipsos-MORI did complete their December survey over the weekend and I’m still waiting for confirmation about the ICM poll for the Guardian.

Unlike YouGov but like Comres both the surveys that we are expecting are weighted by certainty to vote and my guess is that this might be a contributing factor.

But I’ve been doing this for far too long to make rash predictions. Let’s wait for the numbers. Generally the Guardian survey comes out at about 8pm while MORI should be available tomorrow – although it might be that like in November we have to wait until the weekend.

  • Simon Mayo show on 5Live I’m due to discuss latest political developments on his programme just after 1pm.
  • Mike Smithson

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