What are the chances on the Ladbrokes Indy market?
In an excellent review of the Welsh marginals on PB2 Meurig rather ducked out of a prediction for Blaenau Gwent – what was previously Labour strongest seat in Wales that was lost, of course, after the all-women short-list row in 2005 and then held onto by independent Dai Davies in the by election a year later.
This is a pity because it could be key in trying to figure out the Ladbrokes market on the number of Independent MPs who will be elected. This is defined as “candidates not representing Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP or PC. Speaker and N.I.”
The pricing is 5/4 0-2 seats; 6/4 3-5 seats; 11/4 six or more seats.
At the last election there were three of them – George Galloway; Richard Taylor in Wyre Forest as well as Dai Davies – all of whom look set to have tough fighgts. The main parties are standing in Wyre Valley, Galloway has faced boundary changes in east London and is now candidate in Poplar while Blaenau Gwent voters might revert to their traditional allegiance.
If any do hold on could they be joined by one or possibly two Green MPs, Nigel Farage who is fighting John Bercow in Buckingham and, of course, Nick Griffin who is flying the flag for the BNP in Barking.
Caroline Lucas is starting to look good in Brighton Pavillion while UKIP must be in with a shout especially as his opponent’s wife is doing the incumbent no favours. In Barking I think we’ll see tactical voting for the party that looks most able to stop the BNP.
On top of the six that we’ve highlighted there is also the possibility of other indies making it like former “I’m a Celebrity – Get me Out of Here” contestant, Esther Rantzen.
My view is that at the most it will be Lucas and one other. I’ve got a three figure bet on the 0-2 seat option.