ICM Tory lead down to 9%

ICM Tory lead down to 9%

CON 39 % (40)
LAB 30% (29)
LD 20% (21)

And it reports the lowest Tory share since May

New is just coming in of the latest ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph which has the lead down to just 9% and will provide encouragement for Brown Central.

It means that the last six published polls have all had Labour in the 30s with the last four of them putting the Tories under 40. This does look like a trend.

The last time ICM had the Tories below 40% was in May – though the change tonight is within the margin or error.

We have not got the fieldwork dates yet and my guess is that most of the survey would have taken place before yesterday’s news on the criminal cases being brought over the expenses scandal.

The numbers reflect a straight 6% swing from Labour to the Tories from the actual votes cast in the 2005 election. Compared with ICM’s final 2005 survey, which had C32-L38-LD22 tonight’s poll suggests a 7.5% swing.

We are on the margin for the simple UNS calculators and it’s worth bearing in mind what the individual pollsters did five years ago.

In the next couple of days I’m running an extensive examination from professional statistician and PB regular, Andy Cooke, on what lead would trigger a hung parliament.

Mike Smithson

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