How’s this going to go down at the Tory Brighton conference?

How’s this going to go down at the Tory Brighton conference?

CON 37% (40)
LAB 32 % (32)
LD 19% (16)

MORI has the gap down to just 5

The first MORI poll for the Telegraph has more bad news for the Tories and will certainly add to the early election fervour.

For the gap is down to just five points which on the conventional UNS calculators could mean Labour having most seats in a hung parliament.

There’s no getting away from it – this is seriously bad news for Cameron and his team though you always have to add a caveat with MORI polls. It does not politically weight its samples and is hugely vulnerable to sample variation.

The fieldwork took place from last Friday until Monday and a lot has happened in the meantime. The sample size was 1,500 – half as much again as we get from standard MORI phone polls. Maybe this is the pattern for the new Telegraph relationship following the ending of the paper’s seven year relationship with YouGov.

When we see the detailed data and check the numbers against what those interviewed said they did last time we’ll get a greater sense of this. MORI also only include in their headline figures those who are 100% certain to vote.

So with all the polls pointing to a narrowing of the lead it might be a difficult weekend for the party leadership at their spring conference in Brighton.

Mike Smithson

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