CON 38% (38)
LAB 32% (32)
So what IS going to move the numbers?
The incredibly consistent daily poll continues to remain very stable – unmoved by bullygate and now by Michael Ashcroft – that you begin to wonder what could change the numbers.
The Tories would feel much more comfortable if they were back in the 40s while the Labour recovery appears to have run out of steam a bit. With the Lib Dems down two then there all three of the main parties must feel a bit uncomfortable.
The swing here is 4.5% which compares with the 6.5% in the earlier YouGov marginals poll.