Lib Dems take huge hit from both ICM and YouGov

Lib Dems take huge hit from both ICM and YouGov

Fieldwork Pollster/publication CON LAB LD
23-24 June ICM/Sunday Telegraph 41 35 16
24-25 June YouGov / Sunday Times 43 36 16
22-23 June YouGov / Sun 42 34 17
20-21 June YouGov / Sun 41 33 18
18-20 June ICM / The Guardian 39 31 21
18-20 June Ipsos MORI/Reuter 39 31 19
17-18 June YouGov / Sunday Times 39 34 19
16-17 June ComRes / Indy on Sunday 36 30 23
10-11 June YouGov / Sunday Times 40 32 18
10-11 June BPIX (YouGov) / Mail on Sunday 39 32 19
1-9 June Harris/Metro 36 30 25
28-31 May ComRes / The Independent 37 33 21
21-23 May ICM / The Guardian 39 32 21
20-21 May YouGov / Sunday Times 39 32 21
13-14 May YouGov / Sunday Times 37 34 21
12-13 May ICM / Sunday Telegraph 38 33 21
12-13 May ComRes / Indy on Sunday 38 34 21
  General Election GB figures 37 29.7 23.6

What’s this going to do to party nerves?

There are two absolutely devastating polls tonight for the Lib Dems – both showing shares where they haven’t been for a very long time.

What will hurt most is the ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph because its past vote weighting methodology is probably more helpful to the yellows than YouGov. ICM was right at top of the 2010 polling accuracy table.

These numbers will reinforce the coalition doubters within the party and could put Clegg under some pressure. It wasn’t supposed to be like this.

The fact that two pollsters are in the same ball-park will add to their woes and could lead to a re-think of sorts.

It will be interesting seeing the detailed data to look at the churn and retention numbers. The 16% share is nearly eight points down on what they got at the general election.

The ICM share is the lowest the part has has since before Nick Clegg became leader in December 2007.

Mike Smithson

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