Candidate	Best bookie price	Betfair Back – Lay
David Miliband	8/13Â	1.6 – 1.67
Ed Miliband	15/8Â	2.9 – 3.1
Ed Balls	18Â	32 – 40
Andy Burnham	33Â	55 – 65
Diane Abbott	50Â	95 – 110

Are we seeing the Andree Neil effect?

After a week where Labour’s leadership betting has been driven by the number of union endorsements going to Ed Miliband and the Left Foot Forward projection the move to the younger M has stalled.

At one stage yesterday the Betfair last trade was in to 2.6 on EdM with DaveM easing to 1.72. That’s changed sharply.

The main factor overnight has been EdM’s grilling by Andrew Neil on the “This Week” programme when, like the other four, he was put under a lot of pressure. Neil is by far the best political interviewer at the moment and he’s superb at probing weaknesses.

Coming up after the weekend will be the decision of the giant UNITE union which at one stage looked like it would go to Ed Balls. Now it’s suggested that EdM might just squeeze it. The union clearly does not want to back a loser.

I remain convinced that it’s going to be a Miliband and I think the odds should just favour David – but there’s not that much in it.

Thanks to everybody for their kind messages about my operation this week. Everything went okay though it will take me a day or so to be fully fit again.

Mike Smithson