Where will the first by-election be held?
The enterprising betting exchange, Political Smarkets, has just opened an ingenious market on which you can bet on both Phil Woolas and Mike Hancock.
The betting proposition is simple – where will be next parliamentary by election be held?
The options are Oldham East and Saddleworth, Portsmouth South, Fermanagh and South Tyrone and any other seat.
Current prices make make “any other seat” the 55% favourite with Phil Woolas’s “Old & Sad” at 40%. Mike Hancock’s Portsmouth South is at 35% with the NI seat at just 7%.
This is a betting exchange and so far there is very little liquidity – but it could just prove interesting to political punters so that could change. I expect a fair amount of activity as we get closer to November 5th when we’ll get the outcome of the Woolas case.
My guess is that the judges will not force a by election so I’m on the “any other seat” option.