Are voters more enthusiastic for AV the more they understand?

Are voters more enthusiastic for AV the more they understand?

Amended

First past the post ALL % AV voters FPTP voters WON’T VOTE
Heard of it and have broad idea of how it works 65 78 78 35
Heard of it – not sure how it works 18 14 15 22
Never heard of FPTP 17 8 7 43
Alternative vote ALL % AV voters FPTP voters WON’T VOTE
Heard of it and have broad idea of how it works 33 48 38 14
Heard of it– not sure of how it works 35 34 40 29
Never heard of AV 32 19 22 57

Should the NO campaign be worried about this data?

The above data comes from a YouGov poll for the Constitution Society which found, like other recent surveys, that by a small margin voters are against a switch the Alternative Vote system.

    NOTE: The columns are based on what respondents said they would do in the referendum. The rows are their responses to questions about their understanding of the voting systems. So the first column breaks down the responses of those who said they were voting for AV. The second for those voting for FPTP.

Although it’s hard to measure at this stage turnout is probably going to be quite low, particularly in those areas where there are not simultaneous local council or Scottish/Welsh parliament elections.

What has cheered AV supporters like Rod Crosby on the previous thread is the detailed breakdown of the data by people’s knowledge of how the voting system options actually work.

Just look at the 48-38 split for AV amongst those who say they have a broad idea of how AV works. In fact the less people know about AV then the more likely they are to be in favour of first past the post.

As Jay Blanc of Electoral Trend argues: “Since it’s going to be the government’s duty to educate people about what the referendum is about, and what AV is, this means that the Yes campaign will have half it’s job done for it….this can only be a disadvantage to the No campaign since it’s hard to keep people ignorant.”

I’m not fully convinced that you can go directly to that conclusion. I do think, however, that those most keen on change are more likely to turnout.

  • Referendum betting: Smarkets have a market on the referendum outcome while those who think there will be change can get 7/4 at Ladbrokes.
  • Mike Smithson

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