And now Roger on the Oscars – this year decided by AV

And now Roger on the Oscars – this year decided by AV

(Every year on PB Roger gives us his Oscar predictions and betting advice. Those who who’ve followed his analysis have generally come out as winners – let’s hope it’s the same this year – MS)

Where are the awards going to go?

A great year for British films which I hope can withstand the philistinism of this Tory government. Stjohn asked if I could suggest value bets so where two films are close I’ll suggest he takes a punt on whichever he finds is the outsider. N.B. Congratulations to Mike’s brother, John, for ‘127 Hours’. 7 nominations in any year is an exceptional achievement. This one more than most.

Best Film. ‘Black Swan’, ‘The Fighter’, ‘Inception’, ‘The Kids Are All Right’, ‘The Kings Speech’, ‘127 Hours’, ‘The Social Network’, ‘Toy Story 3’, ‘True Grit’, ‘Winter’s Bone’.
So competitive it could be one of four. I think it’ll end up being between ‘The King’s Speech’ and ‘The Social Network’. I’m not a fan of computer nerds so I’ll go for ‘The King’s Speech’. My Stjohn tip would be whichever of these two is the outsider. It could go either way.

Best Director. ‘Black Swan’, ‘The Fighter’, ‘The King’s Speech’, ‘The Social Network’, ‘True Grit’.
This could go three ways. They seldom give the Best Director and the Best Film award to the same person so I’m going for the exceptionally talented commercials director David Fincher for the well crafted ‘The Social Network’. My Stjohn outsider would be the Coen brothers for ‘True Grit’.

Best Actor. Javier Bardem, Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Colin Firth, James Franco.
Colin Firth has this nailed on. James Franco might be worth a small wager.

Best Actress. Annette Benning, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman, Michelle Williams.
Having seen ‘Black Swan’ a second time I think the crowd might be right. Natalie Portman was very good. I still rate Annette Benning a worthwhile second choice.

Best Supporting Actor. Christian Bale, John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner, Mark Ruffalo, Geoffrey Rush.
It should be between Geoffrey Rush and Christian Bale. Rush had a wonderful part but Bale played his brilliantly. I might just go for Christian Bale in ‘The Fighter’. Another British success.

Best Supporting Actress. Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, Jacki Weaver.
A three way tie between Hailee Steinfeld, Helena Bonham Carter and Melissa Leo. HBC was a compelling young Queen Mum and made the most of a small part. 14 year old Hailee was in every scene so good value for ‘supporting’ actress. Melissa Leo the domineering mum in ‘The Fighter’ gave the type of performance Americans love. Perhaps Hailee Steinfeld in ‘True Grit’ by a nose.

Best Animation. ‘How To Train Your Dragon’, ‘The Illusionist’, ‘Toy Story 3’.
‘Toy story 3’. No contest!

Best Cinematography. ‘Black Swan’, ‘Inception’, ‘The King’s Speech’, ‘The Social Network’, ‘True Grit’.
I’ve backed Roger Deakins from Torquay for the last three years without success (unjustly in my opinion). I didn’t think this was his best but his interiors and town scenes were exceptional so Roger Deakins for ‘True Grit’ and fourth time lucky.

Best Art Direction. ‘Alice in Wonderland’, ‘Harry Potter’, ‘Inception’, ‘The King’s Speech’, ‘True Grit’.
Though the recreation of 30’s London was well done in ‘The King’s Speech’ I think I’d just go for ‘Alice’. Stjohn tipping service; whichever offers the best odds.

Best Original Screenplay. ‘Another Year’, ‘The Fighter’, ‘Inception’, ‘The Kids Are All Right’, ‘The King’s Speech’.
I liked them all except for ‘Another Year’. ‘Inception’ and ‘The King’s Speech’ are probably the best of the bunch. Very difficult to choose. Maybe the impenetrable ‘Inception’. (Stjohn. As above). NB. The very clever John Loony thought ‘Inception’ “brilliant”. So at least one person understood it.

Best Adapted Screenplay. ‘127 Hours’, ‘The Social Network’, ‘Toy Story 3’, ‘True Grit’, ‘Winter’s Bone’.
‘The Social Network’ was very cleverly written and made sense of a complex story and ‘Polly’ loved it so there you have it!

Best Costume Design. ‘Alice in Wonderland’, ‘I Am Love’, ‘The King’s Speech’, ‘The Tempest’, ‘True Grit’.
It has to be ‘Alice in Wonderland’! ‘The wardrobe in ‘The King’s Speech’ was very good but you can’t compare a rummage in a junk shop with the imaginative costumes designed for ‘Alice’.

Best Editing. ‘Black Swan’, ‘The Fighter’, ‘The King’s Speech’, ‘127 Hours’, ‘The Social Network’.
Fight films always look well edited and this was no exception. ‘Black Swan’ was slick which it had to be because I doubt Portman is a budding Fontayn. To cut a film with basically one scene takes some skill so I’d say ‘127 Hours’ is a contender.

Best Visual Effects. ‘Alice in Wonderland’, ‘Harry Potter’, ‘Hereafter’, ‘Inception’, ‘Iron Man 2’
It’s got to be ‘Inception’. I went three times to try to figure out the effects. Another three and I might have figured out the film!

Best Sound Editing. ‘Inception’, ‘Toy Story 3’, ‘Tron Legacy’, ‘True Grit’, ‘Unstoppable’.

‘Unstoppable’ and ‘Inception’ (both English directors) were my two choices. ‘Inception’ by a short head.

Best Sound Mixing.
I can’t see the difference between sound editing and mixing so ‘Inception’ again

Best Make-up. ‘Barney’s Version’, ‘The Way Back’, ‘The Wolfman’.
‘The Wolfman’.

PS. The judgements of EdP Chris from Paris and SeanT are always worth hearing on the subject of film.

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