The referendum: What are the polls telling us?
Looking at the the detailed data from recent AV polls there are two clear trends – the older age groups (55+) are much less likely to support change and Labour voters from the general election are the most undecided.
Thursday’s survey for Angus Reid had YES leading with a 37-22 point split. Yet amongst the 55+ group the lead was down to just one point with YES on 34 and NO on 33. Amongst the 18-34s the split was 39-12.
The ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday had the 65+ group showing YES 40 to NO 42 with the 55-64 segment at 38-36. That compared with the 25-34 group going for YES by 43-15.
The significance here, of course, is that the older you are the more likely it is that you are are on the electoral register and the greater the chances that you will vote. The fact that grey vote is much less likely to be enamoured by change is good news for NO.
Looking at responses based on past vote the two polls showed the same broad picture – Tory supporters from last May being opposed to change, LD voters being most in favour and those who supported Brown’s Labour showing a small YES lead.
But the two polls both have Labour voters from last time being the most undecided of all the three main parties with each survey showing the same figure – 32%.
Hopefully there should be several new AV surveys for the Sundays tonight – YouGov, we know, has been testing some new wording so their results won’t be directly comparable with what they have had before.