Could the top pollster from 2007 be right again?
There’s a new ICM poll of Scotland that is showing quite a different picture of opinion in the country compared with other recent surveys from other firms. The figures are as follows:-
The constituency voting intentions show: Lab 39, SNP 35, Con 12, LD 10, Oth 4
The regional voting intention shows: Lab 37, SNP 34, Con 13, LD 9, Grn 4, Oth 7
The actual constituency breakdown from 2007 was LAB 32.2: SNP 32.9: CON 16.6 LD 16.2. The regional vote was LAB 29.2: SNP 31: CON 13.9: LD 11.3: GRN 4
So Labour and the SNP are doing better than four years ago while the Westminster coalitions partners are doing worse.
At the 2007 Scottish elections ICM came out as top pollster.