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Month: June 2011

Why aren’t the Greens doing better?

Why aren’t the Greens doing better?

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Shouldn’t they be benefiting more from the big boys’ unpopularity? This ought to be a good time for the minor parties. The government contains two of the three main parties but still consistently registers approval ratings in the minus twenties. Labour is led by someone in whom the public appears to have little confidence, yet is rated higher than his main shadow cabinet colleagues. The government is making cuts across large parts of the public sector but has increasingly appeared…

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Is this good news for “Huhne out next” backers?

Is this good news for “Huhne out next” backers?

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Press Association via Yahoo News Police seek possession of speeding tape As trailed by Guido, the Sunday Times is reporting that it has been ordered by a judge to hand over to Essex Police a recording of Huhne and ex-wife Vicky Pryce discussing the speeding allegations – although the paper is said to be considering an appeal. If the police manage to obtain the tape, this could bring matters much further forward – will the tape bring new material to…

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Has Ed signed the death-warrant for his leadership?

Has Ed signed the death-warrant for his leadership?

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How ruthless will his MPs be? There is to be a Clause Four moment after all. Perhaps symbolically, it is not to be over a grand symbol of Labour’s policy but an arcane process for selecting the shadow cabinet. It doesn’t matter though. In taking on this fight, Miliband is placing his authority on the line and challenging his party and his MPs in just the same way. One can well understand his reasons for proposing the change. Not only…

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Are the LDs on the way to regaining Labour tactical votes?

Are the LDs on the way to regaining Labour tactical votes?

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The Friday column by Henry G Manson Yesterday Mike asked if the NHS changes are helping Nick Clegg’s party? They don’t appear to be in terms of substantially changing the opinion polls for the yellows which is scraping around 8-12% depending on which poll you look at. However I am increasingly of the view the NHS will bear fruit in future elections and that a fair few Labour people to consider tactically voting for them to hurt Conservatives again in…

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Mark Gill on the private/public sector worker divide?

Mark Gill on the private/public sector worker divide?

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(Mike Smithson is on holiday for the next 11 days and one of the features on PB during his absence is a series of articles by Mark Gill – former head of political research at Ipsos-MORI and co-author with Bob Worcester, Roger Mortimore, Paul Baines of Explaining Cameron’s Coalition) Does Labour’s lead amongst the latter matter? Labour are way more popular among public sector workers, but how much does this matter? One of the benefits of the detailed data tables…

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Can anybody see anything other than a LAB hold?

Can anybody see anything other than a LAB hold?

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Could the SNP band-wagon continue? Exactly a week on from tonight the polls will close in the first by-election of the new parliament caused by the demise of the MP elected at the May 2010 general election. All the other contests have been either prompted by the courts in one way or another – Phill Woolas/Eric Illsley – or else because the May 5th winner wanted to fight an election for a position outside Westminster – Sir Peter Soulsby in…

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Is the NHS helping Clegg’s ratings recovery?

Is the NHS helping Clegg’s ratings recovery?

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Ipsos-MORI And shouldn’t Ed being faring better amongst ex-LDs? As well as this morning’s voting intention figures we now have details of the pollster’s leadership ratings which have been asked in the same form for nearly a third of a century. As can be seen Cameron is almost at a standstill, Clegg sees an upturn from the previous seriously poor figures and Ed Miliband continues to struggle. In spite of Labour benefitting more than the Tories in the fall of…

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LAB down to its smallest MORI share since December

LAB down to its smallest MORI share since December

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YouGov now looking even more isolated The June political monitor by Ipsos-MORI for Reuters is out and has both coalition partners moving up at the expense of Labour who are now back in the 30s for the first time from the firm since last December. Labour are down three at 39 with with the Tories up two at 37 and the LDs up one at 11. The shares are almost identical to the ICM poll that was published on Monday…

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