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Henry G Manson’s weekly column A week ago Tim Montgomerie astutely identified the need for the Conservative Party to being on the side of ‘the little guy’ as part of a renewed effort to win their first majority since 1992. The ConHome Editor pointed to research of marginals from Lord Ashcroft that showed that ‘among target voters there is a sense that we are a party of the rich’. This is something that will not change overnight but can only…

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Are we seeing the polling impact of Monday’s vote? The overnight YouGov poll for the Sun saw Labour move to a seven point lead over the Conservatives – the largest gap since the firm changed its weighting methodology earlier in the month. A deficit of seven points is a big margin particularly as the Tories need to be at least seven points ahead to have any hope of securing a majority. In the past I have not given too much…

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A guest slot by Robert Smithson If you read The Telegraph, or the pb.com commenters, you could hardly fail to come to the conclusion that the Euro has been a disaster for all involved. Riots in the streets of Athens, austerity in Ireland, and the bumblings of Euro-summits serve only to reinforce the view. Yet, as always, the truth is rather more nuanced. Since January the first 1999, when the Euro was introduced, GDP per head in the Eurozone has…

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The Tory voter view of David Cameron The Labour voter view of Ed Miliband The LD voter view of Nick Clegg All this, of course from today’s Ipsos-MORI monitor for Reuters.

And another pollster records an increase for “others” The October MORI political monitor for Reuters is just out and has margin of error changes which see Labour extend their lead from 2% last month to 4% today. It’s CON 34 (-1): LAB 38 (+1): LD 12 (-1): OTH 16 (+1). In the leader ratings Ed Miliband has moved up from last month’s worst ever position. He’s now on 34% satisfaction an increase of 3. Cameron’s up one at 40% while…

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This is the place for PB’s informal overnight conversation where lurkers who have never posted before are particularly welcome. Have a good evening – tomorrow I’m hoping that we’ll see the MORI October poll. Last month it was 35-37-13. @MikeSmithsonPB

General election outcome Betfair CON MAJ 1.46/1 NO OVERALL MAJ 1.78/1 LAB MAJ 2.65/1 Are there too many obstacles to success? This is first post on the betting for next time – which almost certainly will be be on May 7th 2015 – three and a half years off. The only general election market I’ve been tempted by is on which year where I’ve built up a reasonable position at odds averaging just short of evens on 2015. I regard…

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Has it taken the “fizz” out of the process Just over six weeks ago the fixed term parliaments’ act finally became law setting the next general election date as May 7th 2015. While it is true that there are a couple of ways that an election could take place before that the current coalition arithmetic means that these look unlikely. Reflecting on what’s happened since it strikes me that the change is having a profound affect on the whole political…

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