The Debut ICM Wisdom Index

The Debut ICM Wisdom Index

This is the debut of a new polling methodology from ICM.

Conservatives 31%

Labour 39%

Lib Dems 16%


Unlike conventional polls, which ask voters which party they would choose in a general election, the Wisdom Index asks them to predict the result of such a contest.

This poll was conducted online, unlike other ICM polls which are conducted by phone. 

Martin Boon of ICM posted on the previous thread, here is an excerpt. 

The new technique is based on the concept of the Wisdom of Crowds; the idea that a random crowd is capable of superior judgement than the smartest people within it.

At the 2010 GE this method out performed every other poll. I have shadowed it over time against our tracker polls and it provides an interesting complement to them, in my view.

These are the differences from the last ICM phone poll, however this is for the purposes of comparison only.

Conservatives minus 5%

Labour minus 2%

Lib Dems plus 5%


ICM Research interviewed 1,965 adults aged 18+ online, on 30-31st May 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the demographic profile of all adults.


Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.

Comments are closed.