Labour’s YouGov lead down to 8pc – but it is too early to say that it’s Philpott, welfare, Mrs Thatcher or just normal margin of error
Chart showing trend in YouGov daily poll April 3 – April 9 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stâ€¦
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2013
Today’s YouGov daily poll has CON 33%: LAB 41%: LD 10%: Ukip 10%. So the numbers are almost back to where they were in the first survey after the Easter break – 33/41/9/10.
There’s been a lot going and it’s easy to choose one of several factors and say that is the driver. But it could all just be the standard margin of error that we have to factor into all polling analysis.
As ever the wise course is to wait a few days and see how it looks after two weeks of results. Also, in that time, we could get some results from other pollsters.
The big picture is that the polls have remained remarkably stable since Osborne’s March 2012 budget. The Tory deficit got wider after the furore surrounding those announcements and have stayed in the same area.
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