The main driver of the GE2015 outcome will be what 2010 LDs do: It’s looking very good for LAB
@msmithsonpb @dpjhodges Done!
— Harry Phibbs (@harryph) June 2, 2013
My wager with ConHome Harry Phibbs
I’m still on holiday in Italy but that didn’t stop me getting into a wager challenge last night on Twitter with ConHome’s Harry Phibbs on the outcome of the general election.
My reading is simple: this is all about the 2010 Lib Dem voters who made up just under one quarter of the electorate that day. Unless there’s a massive turnaround it’s highly unlikely that they’ll get anywhere near that in 2015.
The critical question is where will this key group of swing voters end up?
The current polling is giving us an unequivocal message – Labour will be a much bigger beneficiary than the Tories. While that situation remains it’s hard to see a pathway for the blues to remain part of the government.