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Month: October 2014

Alex Salmond fighting a Westminster seat that voted overwhelmingly NO would be a huge gamble

Alex Salmond fighting a Westminster seat that voted overwhelmingly NO would be a huge gamble

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You could see this as an attack line? “You voted NO – now tell him you mean it”? It’s been reported widely that the outgoing SNP leader and Scottish First Minister, Alex Salmond, is thinking about seeking a Westminster seat to fight at GE15. This would mean a return to the Commons. The one he’s said to have his eye is Gordon in Aberdeenshire where the sitting Lib Dem MP, Malcolm Bruce, is standing down. Generally the Lib Dems are…

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After a series of polls showing the main parties level-pegging today’s YouGov has LAB creeping back into the lead

After a series of polls showing the main parties level-pegging today’s YouGov has LAB creeping back into the lead

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Now a 1% margin is something for the red team to cheer For whatever reason things have not been going well for LAB in the polls over the past week. Only the Populus online poll on Monday showed a lead while Opinium, Ashcroft, ComRes and three successive YouGovs had LAB and CON level-pegging. Of course edging up to a 1% lead, as today, is statistically irrelevant – but this is not about statistics but party morale and pressure, perhaps, on…

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Predict Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election and win the political book that everybody’s talking about

Predict Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election and win the political book that everybody’s talking about

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pic.twitter.com/VFY8BtH0Cw — PolPics (@PolPics) October 28, 2014 Which party will win and what’ll be the winning percentage margin? Last night I attended a splendid book launch for the book by the academic duo of Phil Cowley and Rob Rord featured above. Extracts have received a fair bit of coverage in the past couple of days particularly on the sexual traits of different party supporters. The book is a compendium if fascinating political tales aimed, I’d suggest, at the political geek…

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Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if it manages to get a 6% lead

Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if it manages to get a 6% lead

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The first target for the blues – to be doing better than last time At GE2010 the Conservatives had a GB national vote share of 37% which was 7.3% bigger than Labour’s total of 29.7%. So under a uniform national swing CON needs to be ahead by that margin simply to stop losing seats to LAB. That is the starting point for the party at GE15 – to do at least as well as they did last time. Thus it…

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Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 and UKIP up 4

Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 and UKIP up 4

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4 out of the five last polls have been level-pegging It’s been a big polling day with three surveys already all of them pointing to the fact that the race has got very tight. Just published is the ComRes phone poll for the Indy which has CON 30+1, LAB 30-5, LD 9-1, UKIP 19+4, GRN 4= The UKIP figure is a high for ComRes phone polls and the 30% LAB share equals what the party was on at the last…

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Neil Findlay – Henry G Manson’s tip for next Scottish LAB lead

Neil Findlay – Henry G Manson’s tip for next Scottish LAB lead

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Neil Findlay – a possible runner in Scots LAB leadership race pic.twitter.com/whhZWYLUSD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 27, 2014 Look beyond Westminster for likely contenders So far the bookmakers appear to have worked on the assumption that it was there for the taking for the so-called Westminster ‘big beasts’ of Gordon Brown and Jim Murphy with Anas Sarwar the Scottish Labour Deputy the main MSP contender. However with both Brown and Sarwar now ruling themselves out, the field opens considerably….

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If Thursday’s S Yorkshire PCC by election is close then CON voters’ 2nd preferences could push the purples across the line

If Thursday’s S Yorkshire PCC by election is close then CON voters’ 2nd preferences could push the purples across the line

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South Yorkshire and the 2012 PCC election result. pic.twitter.com/euAeJCdJfo — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 18, 2014 The blues surely want UKIP to be stopped even if that means LAB winning Looking at the result 2 years ago for the South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner the outcome of Thursday’s by election appears to be a foregone conclusion – a LAB HOLD on an even lower turnout. But the dramatic and worrying events in Rotherham combined with the UKIP surge so…

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No Overall Majority now an even hotter favourite for GE15

No Overall Majority now an even hotter favourite for GE15

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No Overall Majority now a 51% chance on the Betfair exchange – see trend pic.twitter.com/1xJhh3rO0s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2014 @MSmithsonPB We have the probability of no overall majority at 81%. Even those reduced odds look like a good deal. — Election Forecast UK (@Election4castUK) October 26, 2014 It really is hard to argue against The coming general election really is quite extraordinary. I can’t recall a time ever when all the main political parties and their leaders…

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