Why the Tories could need to be 10% ahead in England and Wales just to stand still
What happened at GE2010 when you exclude Scotland
One of the reasons why the latest Electoral Calculus projection, see previous thread, appeared to be so good for LAB was the way Scotland and England/Wales were treated. This is the response I got from Martin Baxter on the computation:-
“The overall prediction is based on both the national (GB) polls and the Scotland-specific polls. For Scottish seats, the prediction is just based on the Scottish Westminster VI polls, and for England and Wales it is based on the GB polls (after allowing for Scotland).”
As can be seen from the chart the overall GB gap between CON and LAB was 7.3%. But because Labour did so well in Scotland last time excluding it makes a big different.This puts the overall gap between the two main parties in England/Wales at more than 10% which, theoretically, means that a gap at any level below that would see CON losing seats to LAB
The Tories, of course, are hopeful that they can make up some of this from the Lib Dems but as the Lord Ashcroft constituency polling has shown you can’t take gains from the yellows for granted.
Of course elections are not decided by national party popularity contests but by hard fought battles in each of the 650 seats where tactical and incumbency factors can come into play.
I plan to monitor the England/Wales swings closely in the coming four months. At GE2010 the Tories made nearly 100 gains there and they need to hold on to as many as possible.