A bit of cheer for LAB as TNS Scotland poll has party just 10% behind

A bit of cheer for LAB as TNS Scotland poll has party just 10% behind

Even though they are behind this poll will come as a relief to LAB

Just out from TNS is the latest Scotland poll. The main GE voting figures are in the chart above and as can be seen the red team trail the nats by 10%.

But that will cone as a huge relief given some recent Scottish polls. ICM’s most recent effort had it at 17%, Survation 20%, YouGov 21% with the Ipsos-MORI landline poll a wallowing 28%.

TNS looks like progress then? Well yes and no. There is no post IndyRef Scottish GE15 survey to compare with. The gap is the same as Panelbase in early January for the Sunday Times.

This TNS survey is carried out face to face but with online completion so that responders are able to give their views with a level of secrecy without interviewer bias.

Note that this methodology is NOT the same as the firm is using for its new series of GB GE2015 polls which are all online.

This latest Scottish poll follows three standard GE15 polls. Populus online had LAB 1% ahead, the Ashcroft National landline poll had CON 3% ahead while YouGov had a 1% CON lead.

If Scotland finishes up on May 7th with an outcome similar to TNS then Labour can expect to lose far fewer seats than the Ipsos-MORI Scottish national and Ashcroft landline single seat Scottish surveys have pointed to.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

Comments are closed.