The battle is still on a knife-edge

CON & LAB level-pegging in tonight's YouGov CON 34% LAB 34% LDEM 8% UKIP 14% GRN 5%

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2015

Opinium poll for Observer LAB 35 CON 34 LD 6 UKIP 14 GRN 6

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2015

The big message for the Tories as we go into the last two months and a bit is that they need to have emphatic leads across a range of pollsters to be certain of coming top on seats. Unlike previous elections when you could compute these things relatively easily today it is so much hard to state anything with any certainty.

The current assumption is that LAB will lose 20-30 seats in Scotland but very small movements could push that one way or the other. But this could be a mixed blessing for the blue team. A huge LAB collapse would make the SNP extraordinarily powerful and present huge problems for the the Tories – if indeed they remain in power.

This is the latest from Electoral Calculus which takes into account a huge move to the SNP yet still leaves LAB a lot closer to majority territory.

Electoral Calculus February projection giving SNP 46 seats has LAB just 25 short of majority pic.twitter.com/BIp9Ny9qkq

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2015