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Month: October 2015

If the CON GE2015 manifesto had been specific about the tax credit change it’s arguable that they would NOT have won

If the CON GE2015 manifesto had been specific about the tax credit change it’s arguable that they would NOT have won

Next time it’ll harder not to be specific An interesting point was raised by an SNP MP at PMQs: “.. the reason David Cameron chose not to include this policy in his manifesto – and the reason he promised before the election not to do it – is because he knows if he had done, he would not have been elected. Pushing working families into poverty even goes against the most right wing Tory rhetoric about those mythical “benefit scroungers”….

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More leader rating woes for Corbyn though Dave moves from a positive to a negative with YouGov

More leader rating woes for Corbyn though Dave moves from a positive to a negative with YouGov

This month's "well/badly" ratings from YouGov on Cameron & Corbyn. pic.twitter.com/rRrKnttGbS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2015 JC comparing badly with EdM’s early ratings Latest YouGov well/badly ratings have Corbyn with a net minus 20. Table above shows EdM's numbers in 1st months pic.twitter.com/W3n9niiifH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2015 The latest YouGov Well/Badly ratings are in the top panel above and show Corbyn with a net minus 20%. Normally main party leaders enjoy a honeymoon partly caused…

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Osborne – the Volkswagen of British politics – having taken a reputational hit the question is can he recover?

Osborne – the Volkswagen of British politics – having taken a reputational hit the question is can he recover?

Remember Maggie survived taking away school milk George Osborne is a bit like Volkswagen – never really loved but until a short time ago highly regarded for reliability and performance. Then came the tax credits – his version of the diesel emissions scandal with the defeat software designed to get round environmental tests. For the past six months Osborne had appeared to be able to do no wrong. He got much of the kudos within the Conservative Party for the…

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On the eve of this month’s GOP debate Trump gets knocked off the top slot in new national poll

On the eve of this month’s GOP debate Trump gets knocked off the top slot in new national poll

Trump edged out for the first time in three months Tomorrow’s a big night in the fight for the GOP nomination – the third big TV debate. With established politicians all making heavy weather in the polls the former neuro-surgeon, Ben Carson and Donald Trump have been leading with, until today, the latter having the edge. But now we have this one from CBS/NYT. New CBS Republican national nominee poll has Trump in 2nd place26% – Carson22% – Trump8% –…

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Antifrank looks at what now for the House of Lords

Antifrank looks at what now for the House of Lords

The possible courses of action So the House of Lords has opted for confrontation with the government by asserting its right to intervene on financial matters that are not covered by the letter of the Parliament Act 1949. In turn, the government, like King Lear, has threatened that “I will do such things — what they are yet I know not — but they shall be the terrors of the earth”. We’ll see. It has long been recognised by pretty much everyone at…

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The tax credits defeat happened because the Tories are still paying a price for not winning a majority in 2010

The tax credits defeat happened because the Tories are still paying a price for not winning a majority in 2010

The UK politics version “A peerage is for life not just for a parliament” Whenever I see animal welfare posters like the one above I think of the Coalition agreement of May 11 2010 – the day that David Cameron became PM after reaching an agreement with Nick Clegg and his team. For in recent days there’s been some comment that the Liberal Democrats are in a very strong position with 100+ peers in the House of Lords – a…

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The Lords vote to delay, not kill, Osborne’s tax credits plan

The Lords vote to delay, not kill, Osborne’s tax credits plan

The motion to delay the tax credits changes which has been agreed pic.twitter.com/fpOjbsHnxU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015 LAB peers don't back the Lib Dem motion which would have totally killed the tax credit plan pic.twitter.com/WXll9S7OMN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015 Methinks that LAB decision not to vote for the killing of the tax credits changes might be seen as a mistake — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015 Reminder: PB gathering Shooting Star Pub, London…

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Farage and UKIP the big gainers in the October Ipsos phone poll

Farage and UKIP the big gainers in the October Ipsos phone poll

Farage up from -5% to +8% in latest Ipsos satisfaction ratings. pic.twitter.com/ZngyB8DhRt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015 Chart with voting figures in latest Ipsos poll pic.twitter.com/MEqe2qbwTp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015 42% say Corbyn and 39% say Cameron should not lead their parties at the general election – Ipsos polling pic.twitter.com/OG9wF1UMQv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015