@MSmithsonPB If 38% of Con voters can't answer a question like that in Osborne's favour he's fucked.
— ForgottenGenius (@ExStrategist) December 21, 2015
The problem Osborne’s got is the party’s electoral system that was devised by William Hague during his 1997-2001 period as leader.
Basically there is an exhaustive ballot of MPs to choose two of their number whose names will go forward to the membership in a secret postal ballot. Given that so many of the blue team at Westminster owe their positions to Osborne it is highly likely that he’ll make the final cut. The issue is whether the membership will back him. Polling numbers like the ones from Opinium over the weekend raise questions.
Of course there is a distinction between CON voters as a whole and the party membership that will decide but Osborne always faces what hit the odds-on front-runner, David Davis, is September 2005. He’d been the long-standing favourite and received most public endorsements from MPs yet suddenly the party went potty over a relatively new face, David Cameron. The rest is history.
On Betfair Osborne retains his favourite status with punters rating him as a 38% chance. I’m not sure that it’ll be him or Boris. Like in previous CON contests someone quite surprising could emerge.