Just three weeks to go and two new polls put Trump back in the lead in Iowa
Made in China and just purchased for $20 outside Donald Trump rally in Reno today. pic.twitter.com/FObIm2cqTo
— Paul Lewis (@PaulLewis) January 10, 2016
Trump ahead in Quinnipiac Iowa poll
Trump 31%
Cruz 29%
Rubio 15%
Carson 7%
Christie 4%
Caucus voting 3 weeks tonight— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2016
Another Iowa poll has Trump ahead – ARG
Trump 29%
Cruz 25%
Rubio 10%
Carson 8%
Christie 6%— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2016
Three weeks on from tonight meetings will be taking place in each of the 1600+ precincts in Iowa at the start of the WH2016 nomination process. Both the Republicans and Democrats have caucuses at the same time.
Eight days later, on February 9th, there’s the first full primary in New Hampshire.
Historically these two have set the tone for the whole nomination effort and all contenders are working hard for good outcomes.
Until tonight’s polls Trump had been starting to fade in Iowa but that now seems to have been reversed.
Caucuses are notoriously difficult to poll because only a small proportion of voters actually take the trouble to to got on a cold evening to attend a meeting. The poll that has the best record is for the Des Moines Register and will likely be published on the day before.
My money’s mostly on Cruz for the nomination.