How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

How a Labour coup against Corbyn in May could win the EU referendum for Leave

The Glare

Why David Cameron and Remain should be hoping Labour does really well in May’s elections. A Labour leadership contest at the same time as the referendum campaign could favour Leave.

Whilst it might seem like the EU referendum is solely an internal Tory party matter, if David Cameron wants Remain to win, he’s going to need Labour voters to turn out for Remain. David Cameron may not be the best person to get Labour voters to come out and vote for Remain, so he’s going to be reliant on Labour politicians to do that for him.

Now just imagine Labour having a really poor set of election results in May, yesterday we had polling with Labour third behind the Tories in Scotland, some Labour MPs might see this as the optimal time to launch a leadership challenge, as Corbyn’s dire polling ratings meeting the ballot box might be a tipping for his ardent supporters as they realise he is not the electoral messiah they think he is, especially with The Observer reporting today that two of Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet members have been touring the country, speaking to voters and finding ‘Many former Labour voters who switched to the Conservatives at the last election in key electoral battlegrounds are showing no regret and little sign of returning to the fold.

The Telegraph reports “Labour’s biggest donors have stopped giving to the party since Jeremy Corbyn took over and instead piled £140,000 into the private offices of his top leadership rivals” which some have interpreted as the donors and MPs “preparing for are privately gearing up for a snap leadership campaign should Mr Corbyn become vulnerable by failing to make gains in May’s local elections.”

Alan Johnson who is leading Labour’s Remain campaign and Hilary Benn, the Shadow Foreign Secretary, instead of spending May and June campaigning on the EU referendum might be spending their time campaigning to be Labour leader in May and June. As well other senior Labour people (and potential leadership contenders) such as Chuka Umuna, Andy Burnham, John McDonell, Dan Jarvis and Yvette Cooper who might not have the time nor the energy to campaign in the EU referendum. As we approach the Referendum on Europe, during The Final Countdown towards the vote the eyes  of many in the Labour party might be on the Labour leadership contest. This may well lead to the Labour vote not turning out on the 23rd of June. Quite simply, if the the Labour Party is hors de combat from this referendum campaign, Leave wins, as Leavers will be more motivated to turnout than Remainers in my view.

So if you’re a passionate Leaver, and you have a vote in May’s elections, then you should use it to vote for the party best placed to defeat Labour in your area, the worse Labour performs in May, the greater the probability of a challenge to Corbyn. Within a year of becoming Labour Leader, Jeremy Corbyn might just help end David Cameron’s Premiership in a very unexpected way as I fully expect David Cameron to resign as Prime Minister were Leave to win.


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