The CON voter split will be crucial
One of the best non-voting intention polling indicators to the referendum could well be the question above used by ComRes at the weekend in its IoS Sunday Mirror online poll.
Inevitably the battle is being presented in the media as a mighty clash between the Prime Minister and the Mayor and the question of who is trusted most to act in the interests of Britain is central.
Overall but only by a whisker ComRes found that Cameron just has the edge but the breakdown by party support is quite revealing. He leads amongst all voting groups apart from UKIP supporters who are overwhelmingly for Johnson.
The key numbers and ones where we could see movement is within the Conservative voting segment. At the moment Cameron has a two to one lead here which I found somewhat surprising. I’d have expected it to be much closer given the way the Tory press is so hostile.
Because this is a blue on blue clash and what we know of previous voting patterns CON voters’ segment will have the highest turnout level. LAB voters might be less inclined to vote in a battle that appears to sideline their party.
The BREXIT campaign has to find a way of undermining the trust that Cameron has amongst the voting group that gave him a Commons majority last May. Many of them might be inclined to out but at the moment they trust him more than Boris.