A reminder from 16 months ago about the danger of reading too much into one day of polling

A reminder from 16 months ago about the danger of reading too much into one day of polling

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The Brexit paradox: The more likely it looks to happen the less likely it is to happen?

After yesterday’s polls it might be easy to say Monday the 13th of June was the day the day polls turned, but as that Guardian front page above shows, it is never wise to assume things like that.

One of the reasons is that earlier on this month I spoke to someone who is working for Vote Leave, and they were worried about consistent Leave leads, as it might lead to Sterling tumbling because of Brexit fears and the FTSE 100 falling for the same reason. If Brexit looks certain, then the past Sterling/FTSE100 slides might be replicated on a larger scale.  That is a horrible narrative for Leave to try and counter this close to voting day.

It reminded me of the Ed Miliband/SNP in power at Westminster paradox, the more likely it looked to happen, the less likely it was to happen, as you felt it wasn’t something England (and Wales to a lesser extent) was going to stomach. Additionally these type of Leave leads should boost the turnout of complacent Remainers, who if it was looking like a comfortable Remain victory might stay at home.

I’m still confident of a Remain victory, however that assessment will change if David Cameron offers the country a vow or a potential game changer as a referendum on Turkey joining the EU, that’s when I think that’s the true tipping point for Leave.

What of David Cameron? With this referendum he must be feeling like the couple who agreed to make home made porn. It sounded like a good idea at the time, he thought it would be fun to do, but now as he sits back and views his production, he must be thinking this hasn’t turned out how he expected it to turn out, whilst regretting his initial decision and feeling a bit nauseous about it all.


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