A year after his unlikely candidature Trump looks set to finalise the nomination

A year after his unlikely candidature Trump looks set to finalise the nomination

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The are similarities between Trump backers & LEAVE ones

Because so much has happened in British politics over the past couple of months we have hardly looked at the White House which looks set to be bwtween Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Today,in Cleveland Ohio, the Republican campaign starts in earnest with the convention. Although there have been rumblings about a stop Trump move this appears to be very challenging given how successful he was during the primaries. He was the winner by a country mile and it is hard to see anything other than his nomination being ratified.

I’ve just bet on the assumption that the convention will give him a polling boost which is almost always what happens at this stage after party conventions. The prices, as can be seen above, are still attractive. My intent will be to do the opposite just before the Democratic convention and hopefully will see some trading profits.

The thing that strikes me about the coming fight is that Trump is managing to appeal to a section of white America that is very similar to LEAVE on June 23rd. The big dividing line is whether voters had a college education or not. The other split is on gender with women be more like to back Hillary.

Against that we have ethnic minority splits which point to Trump facing big challenges. The Hispanics are very strongly against him.

As we all know the outcome is not based on national vote aggregates but on separate state battles. At this stage the national polls give us a broad indication but as we get closer the swing state polling will become all important.

Both contenders start with huge negatives and very low favourability ratings.

Mike Smithson

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