Macron ends up doing even better than the exit polls

Macron ends up doing even better than the exit polls

New York Times graphic

His victory was almost two to one

In the immediate aftermath of the first round two weeks ago I wrote here that the final outcome was nearest thing to an absolute certainty you could have and I bet accordingly.

There was no way I could see, during the final phase of the campaign that Le Pen could win given the sheer size of the opinion polls gap.

The polls had been dead on for the first round and it was hard seeing anything other than a good performance by them in the second.

    In the end Macron was understated which I put down to the French law that prevented any polls to be published after Friday

If we had had polling taking in the Saturday my guess is that they would have got it closer. There was a clear trend to Macron from Wednesday onwards.

Surprisingly Macron’s price offered remarkable value even till after the count had started and the exit polls.

We had that remarkable statement from Ladbrokes on. Saturday that 90% of the bets being placed with them were on Le Pen a mood that, perhaps, had been helped by memories of Brexit and Trump.

So what has been the biggest non UK/US political betting event is over and we can now look forward to June 8th and later in the year the German election.

Mike Smithson

Comments are closed.