Browsed by
Month: July 2017

Former runaway favourite Johnson now slips to just a 6.6% chance in the next CON leader betting

Former runaway favourite Johnson now slips to just a 6.6% chance in the next CON leader betting

Comments 0 Comment

Amber Rudd, Jacob Rees Mogg, and David Davis, now ahead of him One of the little commented upon factors since GE2017 is that the former Tory golden boy appears to have lost the midas touch. Certainly there has been a big move away from him on the betting markets and he’s now in fourth place. For several years, even before he returned to the Commons at the 2014 Uxbridge by-election, there’s been a widespread assumption that if ex-mayor Johnson could…

Read More Read More

The Tories needs to resolve divisions soon because divided parties struggle at election time

The Tories needs to resolve divisions soon because divided parties struggle at election time

Comments 0 Comment

One of the things that we know from previous elections is that parties that are seen to be divided can get punished by the voters. That was John Major’s fate at GE1997 after five difficult years of one split after another. The current situation, as seen in the recent YouGov polling illustrated in the chart and touched on in this week’s podcast, looks challenging and could be hugely problematical if there is the need for an early election. This, of…

Read More Read More

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: End of term review

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: End of term review

Comments 0 Comment

As Westminster heads on its summer holidays, Keiran is joined by Polling Matters regulars Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to review the year-to-date. The trio discuss polling showing that the Tories are now seen as more divided than Labour and they also discuss Chuka Umunna’s recent tweet that seemingly challenged the Labour leadership’s position on Europe. Keiran, Rob and Leo then look at what the myriad of polling on Brexit tells us about public opinion on the subject and indeed…

Read More Read More

If CON, LAB, and the SNP each got 30% of the Scottish vote Sturgeon’s party would be down to just 6 MPs

If CON, LAB, and the SNP each got 30% of the Scottish vote Sturgeon’s party would be down to just 6 MPs

Comments 0 Comment

The Times Why the SNP could be in trouble There’s a fascinating analysis in the Times by James Kanagasooriam of Populus of what would happen in Scotland’s 59 seats if the hree main parties there CON, LAB and the SNP each secured 30% of the vote. The projected seat totals are in the chart. The balance of the 59 Scottish seats would go to the LDs which would once again return to its historical position as the third party st…

Read More Read More

Today’s move against petrol and diesel vehicles will move the narrative on from Brexit

Today’s move against petrol and diesel vehicles will move the narrative on from Brexit

Comments 0 Comment

This morning’s big political news is that the Government is set to announce that petrol and diesel vehicles will no longer be sold in the UK from 2040. It represents a big change but the environmental and health benefits are strong and the change won’t happen for 22 years. Given the parliamentary arithmetic and the overwhelming obsession with BREXIT this has some strong political benefits for ministers. It moves the main talking point on and it looks to have wide…

Read More Read More

Brace yourselves for the impending train wreck of the Brexit negotiations

Brace yourselves for the impending train wreck of the Brexit negotiations

Comments 0 Comment

Alastair Meeks on the similarities with 1914 The biggest avoidable catastrophe of the twentieth century was the outbreak of the First World War.  A single act of terrorism emanating from a small pre-modern state was allowed by mishandling by several different nations to escalate into a war that devastated a continent.  Historians continue to argue to this day about the causes.  It is often observed that the Russian mobilisation plans entailed rigid planning.  The steps that the Russians took that…

Read More Read More

Mr. Corbyn is playing a dangerous game with the majority of LAB voters who want to remain

Mr. Corbyn is playing a dangerous game with the majority of LAB voters who want to remain

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov He’s got away with it so far but that could end abruptly One of the extraordinary features about the current febrile political situation is that Corbyn is taking a totally different line on Brexit from the vast majority of Labour voters. His ambivalence survived the GE2017 campaign because, frankly, no one believed his party stood an earthly and it didn’t receive the critical attention Team TMay had to deal with. Now LAB is leading in the polls (2% up…

Read More Read More

The Premiership will be more dominated by teams from REMAIN areas next season

The Premiership will be more dominated by teams from REMAIN areas next season

Comments 0 Comment

Not long now before the big kick-off and I’ve updated my chart showing the referendum vote in the local authority areas where the 20 teams have their grounds. Last season the EPL was spit between 10 REMAIN areas teams and 10 LEAVE ones. The relegation of Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Hull and their replacement by Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield means that the split is now 12-8 to Remain. The pattern is not really surprising given that most of the big clubs…

Read More Read More