After another stormy period punters make it a 56% chance that Trump won’t survive a full first term
Returning once again to what continues to be the biggest political betting market in the UK at the moment – is Trump going to complete a full first term?
This is very much driven by the news coming across the Atlantic and the latest is his pardon to ex-county sheriff, Joe Arpaio. As has been widely reported he’s is a very controversial figure,particularly for his immigration sweeps in targeted Latino neighborhoods, and the conditions in his jail. Six years ago he was convicted of criminal contempt for ignoring a court order to stop detaining people based on suspicion of their immigration status with no evidence.
The polling shows that Arpaio is widely supported by Trump’s core base but not much beyond. Arizona Senator John McCain has been quick to attack Trump saying “The President has the authority to make this pardon, but doing so at this time undermines his claim for the respect of rule of law”.
Trump will either go of his own accord or there needs to be a bigger change of opinion about him within the Republican party than we have seen so far.
This is not a market I’m betting on.