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Month: July 2018

Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer puts the case for a new election

Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer puts the case for a new election

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Quite naturally, most of the focus lately has been on Mrs May’s increasingly desperate attempts to reach a deal which steers between the Scylla of EU rejection and the Charybdis of ERG revolt. She may yet succeed. If she does, however, it is clear that it will be a narrow squeeze, built on navigation by fudge, postponement of key decisions and general statements of intent to patch the timbers of the ship where water is pouring in. It is possible…

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The road to No Deal: Brexit’s Rubik’s Cube may simply be too difficult

The road to No Deal: Brexit’s Rubik’s Cube may simply be too difficult

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There are too many conflicting interests to simultaneously satisfy Rubik’s cubes were very much a craze when I was at primary school in the early 1980s. I had one, my friends had one and millions of people across the world had them. No-one I know ever solved one though. Sure, you could solve one side easily enough but to solve all six? Certainly it was possible – you saw people on television doing it – but we simply didn’t understand…

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The other upcoming leadership contest – Who will replace Jeremy Corbyn?

The other upcoming leadership contest – Who will replace Jeremy Corbyn?

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  Alastair Meeks looks at the LAB leadership Considering how little support Jeremy Corbyn has in his Parliamentary party, it is astonishing that the subject of leadership succession never comes up any more. Part of this is about airtime: there’s so much discussion about Brexit and the travails of Theresa May that no one has the energy to look at what’s going on in the Labour party. For the moment, Jeremy Corbyn is safe from challenge. The membership have twice…

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Ultimately there has to be a compromise in LAB’s antisemitism row or else the party could split

Ultimately there has to be a compromise in LAB’s antisemitism row or else the party could split

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Neither side appears ready give way It is now more than four months since Labour’s anti-semitism row hit the headlines following publication of a 2012 tweet from Mr Corbyn in which he seemed to be referring approvingly to what was clearly an anti-semitic mural. That provoked the widely publicised demonstration of MPs opposed to the leadership’s handling of the situation, outside the Palace of Westminster. Since then the divide has got deeper and deeper with the NEC wanting to narrow…

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For the first time YouGov finds more supporting a second referendum than opposing

For the first time YouGov finds more supporting a second referendum than opposing

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For first-time YouGov in poll for the Times finds more voters wanting a second referendum then not pic.twitter.com/tPb5OlFUNQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2018 There’s a new YouGov poll in the Times which has 42% wanting a second referendum against 40% who don’t. This is significant because it is the first time that the pollster’s second referendum tracker has found this result and, undoubtedly, will increase the clamour for it to take place. The exact wording of the tracker…

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YouGov finds TMay rated about the same as Major, ahead of Blair and Brown but behind Cameron

YouGov finds TMay rated about the same as Major, ahead of Blair and Brown but behind Cameron

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Above is from some new polling just issued by YouGov in which those surveyed were asked to rate TMay against the three preceding PMs. The Blair figures shows, I’d suggest, the continuing legacy of the Iraq war. It is perhaps worth noting that he is the only one being compared who led his party to sustainable Commons majorities. In electoral terms he is also the most successful leader in his party’s history and there are no matches in modern time…

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House majority betting moves sharply to the Democrats after 3 bad midwest state polls for Trump/GOP

House majority betting moves sharply to the Democrats after 3 bad midwest state polls for Trump/GOP

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The three states, Michigan,Minnesota and Wisconsin were surveyed by NBC News/Marist polls and are,of course, in the part of the US where Trump very much exceeded expectations at WH2016. It was, of course, the mid-west where Trump won the presidency and state polling from here is going to be looked at very closely. If these do represent represent current opinion then the Republicans are going to struggle in November’s midterm elections when all seats in the House of Representatives are…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast – Episode 136 Deal or no deal Brexit, support for the far-right and the death penalty and more

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast – Episode 136 Deal or no deal Brexit, support for the far-right and the death penalty and more

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the levels of public support for a no-deal Brexit and how that may factor into decisions in Westminster. Also on the podcast, the duo look at polling on support for the far-right and other potential new parties by YouGov as well as public support for the death penalty in light of Sajid Javid’s decision not to seek assurances that suspected British Jihadis will not face…

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