A bet that seems like a guaranteed 14% return in just over 4 months

A bet that seems like a guaranteed 14% return in just over 4 months

Video: Footage of Jeremy Corbyn, in yellow, taking on his critics in the Parliamentary Labour Party. NSFW

As long as Labour members see Corbyn as the Messiah & not a very naughty boy there won’t be a Labour leadership contest.

Paddy Power’s market on whether there’ll be a Labour leadership contest in 2018 seems like an absolute slam dunk for backers of the 1/7 for the following reasons.

Whilst Corbyn appears to have better relationships with terrorists and anti Semites than most of his own Parliamentary party colleagues Corbyn continues to enjoy near messianic levels of support with Labour members.

If Labour MPs were going to force another leadership contest Corbyn is going to win again for the foreseeable future. Labour MPs opposed to Corbyn must feel like Darth Vader striking down Obi-Wan Kenobi, ‘If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine’ might well be Corbyn’s taunt to his Labour opponents.

With Corbyn absolutely pummelling his opponents in the last two Labour leadership contests, under the alternative vote system, a system designed to stop X candidates is still seared on the minds of opponents of Corbyn.

For an overwhelming majority of Labour members Corbyn’s still the one and only, he’s not the same as all the rest, just look at the support Corbyn’s received over the anti Semitism issue.

Even if we see mass defections from Labour to an SDP2 I suspect Corbyn will be safe. It will reinforce the view amongst members that a lot of Labour MPs aren’t really loyal to Labour. As we saw with the defection of Mark Reckless it only seems solidify support for the leadership as opprobrium is heaped on the defectors in language that would shock most people.

There’s a chance Corbyn may voluntarily stand down but I can’t see that happening this side of March 29th 2019, he has the potential to shape Brexit and thus the UK for decades to come, he won’t turn down that opportunity. He’s also still working on making Labour perpetually Corbynite policy friendly, that still needs work.

Another factor is that the Corbyn’s critics were proven spectacularly wrong in June 2017 when at the general election Corbyn’s Labour polled 41% in Great Britain, they may have learned some humility after their humiliation.

With Corbyn being a healthy teetotal vegetarian I expect he will be in this for the long haul, so that’s why I’m confident on backing the No option in this bet.


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