Ladbrokes: Chris Williamson is now 33/1 to become the next Labour leader, in from 100/1 last week pic.twitter.com/wp1El4c8vn
— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 4, 2018
Why I’m not jumping aboard on this betting bandwagon
The major betting news today is the odds of Derby North MP Chris Williamson tumbling from 100/1 last week to 33/1 today.
My primary reason for not backing Williamson is that if someone from the Corbynite wing of the party succeeds they will need explicit public and private support of Jeremy Corbyn.
From my vantage point I’d expect the likes of John McDonnell, Richard Burgon, Rebecca Long-Bailey, et al to receive the support of Corbyn before Chris Williamson does.
Whilst Williamson might adore Corbyn it doesn’t seem entirely mutual, as evidenced with which the ease Chris Williamson left the shadow front bench when Williamson got himself into trouble with his plans to double council tax.
The other primary reason for my decision not to bet on Williamson is the problem with Amber Rudd would have faced before her Windrush problem, the size of their majority. A little over a 2% Labour to Tory swing would see Derby North turn blue, just like it did in 2015.
Having a leader with a smallish majority would see them targeted by their opponents in the mother of all decapitation strategies. It would see them spending less time nationwide as they focus on holding their seats. It turns out size does matter.
You can get 40/1 with Bet365 and on the Betfair exchange on Williamson succeeding Corbyn if you disagree with my assessment.