Could this make it easier persuading hardline MPs?
This morning’s ruling by the ECJ that Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally changes the Brexit Debate at a critical time with MPs due to vote on the deal tomorrow evening.
The reaction of punters has been that the UK leaving the EU as planned on March 29th as planned is less likely. Currently it is now a 61% chance that this will not happen. On December 5th the Betfair exchange had this at 50-50. On the second referendum before end of 2019 market this has now moved to a 44% chance. A month ago this was at 27%
My initial thought is the ruling could make it a tad easier for Theresa May and her team as they try to bring on board wavering Conservative MPs.
The risk to hardline Brexiteers now is that that leaving the EU is seen as just possibly less likely to happen. Far better to go with TMay’s compromise solution, you can hear the whips saying, than risk no Brexit at all.
I’d expect that the ECJ ruling could also reinforce those pressing for a new referendum to stop Brexit and might help bring LAB MPs sitting on the fence into the second referendum camp.
As we have seen one of the key arguments from loyalists is that the chances of a No Deal are substantially increased if the current plan is rejected.
A critical part of the ruling is that the terms under which the UK is in the EU would not be affected in Article 50 was revoked so the status quo would be retained.